Varianta extinsă în limba română poate fi citită aici.
– No, yesterday wasn’t November, 15 November… was 15 September 🙂
As I intuited two months ago (here) the Russian parliamentary elections (December 4 2011) and presidential election (next year) are certainly the place where the struggle for influence will become increasingly fierce. In main, the territorial influence. A battle fought, in general, within the walls of the Kremlin, away from the inquiring eyes of the press. Of course, its things are known, even though few speak openly about them. This seems to be also the stake about the recent scandal in the party Right Cause, party until yesterday managed of the businessman and the new initiated in politics, Mikhail Prokhorov.
A huge media noise, which erupted yesterday following the split of Right Cause party and the uncomfortable declarations of party leader Mikhail Prokhorov against to the «gray eminence» of Kremlin – Vladislav Surkov, was backed by a ″deafening silence″ of the Kremlin. Tandem Putin – Medvedev quietly followed daily agenda. All that I could hear was a huge drain of opinions pro and anti-Prokhorov. According to political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky, “the Russian president was disappointed by Mikhail Prokhorov in so that he had instructed Vladislav Surkov to liquidate him”. In change, Gleb Pavlovsky (himself into a smoldering conflict with Surkov after his expulsion from the Kremlin 🙂 ) consider that: ”This conflict is beneficial to almost everyone except Surkov. The presidential administration has suffered reputational costs as well as made a number of tactical errors”. Is Prokhorov, his former party or his protégé Evgeny Roizman the background, essential problem ? I think not. The situation was in fact predictable. I will try to explain why.
Let’s take a closer look on the subject. So, according AP: “Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov abandoned his efforts Thursday to build up a political party and enter in Russian parliament. Prokhorov said that he was unwilling to tolerate interference from the Kremlin”. What about speaking ? We speaking about a party which was from the begin considered a project of the Kremlin, had been expected to draw on the support of opposition-minded and pro-business voters ahead of the Dec. 4 elections for the State Duma, Russia’s national parliament. In the “managed democracy” system nurtured under Vladimir Putin‘s rule as president and now prime minister, most parties represented in parliament have taken their cues from the Kremlin. More, despite the repeated assurances by Prokhorov and his team that they are not tributary to the Kremlin, the public perception about the party did not suffer major changes. In this context, the allegations against deputy chief of presidential administration, Vladislav Surkov should not surprise anyone. “We have a Master puppeteer in the country, who long ago has privatised the political system and who for a long time has misinformed the leadership of the country about what is happening in politics, who leans on the media, and who tries to manipulate public opinion” said Mr. Prokhorov. (As irony of Fate, when Prokhorov released his bellicose statements, the number of journalists around him was higher than his supporters 😀 ). But it is nothing new ! I can to remember Mr. Prokhorov that in a special coverage dedicated to the Kremlin Wars, the experts from Stratfor Global Intelligence considered the appointment – as chief of the Federal district for the North Caucasus – of his close friend Alexander Khloponin a Surkov’s victory in the struggle for influence with Igor Sechin. Or that according an analysis published by Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst and signed by Kevin Daniel Leahy, Suleiman Kerimov’s influence as a lobbyist to the Kremlin – strictly in relation to Dagestan’s political affairs – appears to surpass the influence of Vladislav Surkov. And others numerous examples can be… In such conditions, Prokhorov’s approach at most can be considered a shift between centers/clans of interests which orbit around the power from Kremlin. Indeed, a little more transparent and honest. It is difficult to estimate how “Welcome to real honest politics” (as he said) means his gesture. It is known, as I said, the symbiotic relationship between regional authorities and influential persons which to ensure their lobby to the government and presidential level. The counterfeiting lists of delegates to Congress means that someone wanted to secure his power of influence in these regions. I don’t know if Prokhorov’s rebellion came just an inner desire of justice or is an attempt to protect itself interests and also the interests of influential persons on whose support he was based. But I also said that the situation was predictable. The rigid «vertical of power» built by Surkov has reached full capacity and began to crumble silent since the birth tandem Putin – Medvedev. The attempts (mostly – unsuccessful) of the current president Medvedev to make the necessary changes did not give spectacular results, but have created waves of instability to the pillars of the system. So it was predictable a next step in the dissolution system.
I don’t know if Prokhorov’s projects on his political future will take shape. I do not even think that his gesture could be assessed, at this point, in the subconscious of the masses. But, I know that Surkov will survive this attack. VYS’s genius is not the amazing strategies, it is precisely in its ability to survive all the palace’s intrigues and the ability to speculation the weaknesses of others. And Humanity is not without weaknesses. But, Humanity mean also surprising changes of consciousness, which even the intuition of «eminences gray» cannot guess. Perhaps that is why humanity is so beautiful in its diversity !
PS: Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov wrote on his blog that he had warned Prokhorov that “Putin and Medvedev are too weak, too tainted with corruption and too afraid of competition to tolerate even as a joke ‘I want to be prime minister’ or even worse, ‘I may run for president’.” I think so… Mr. Putin will runs to Presidency and because he is a smart and wise man (has anyone doubts about ?? 😉 ) will do a smart and wise choice that cannot to give him headaches…and for the fans of La Vendetta – No, yesterday wasn‘t November, 15 November… was 15 September 🙂
UPDATE: 20 September 2011
“Grey Cardinal” of the Kremlin and the first public statement after allegations made by billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov
«Revival of a political life before elections was a predictable and normal situation» – has declared today on press – conferences in Ekaterinburg (Sverdlovsk) the first deputy chief of the Presidential administration of the Russian Federation, Vladislav Surkov, answering a question on last pre-election events in the country and the scandal around the party Right Cause. Also, Surkov said that “All is OK”, having emphasized that “our principles of work on political space will remain the same”. Well, Surkov has not explained what about kind of principles and old rules of the game he speaking … maybe this time can to understand Mikhail Prokhorov too – on other principle that says ‹better late than never›, isn‘t ?? … 😀
According RIA NOVOSTI, Vladislav Yurevich Surkov (VYS) on Tuesday has presented new Plenipotentiary Envoy of the Russian President to Ural Federal District, Evgenie Kuyvasheva. VYS asked to those present at the ceremony in Ekaterinburg support, friendship and help for the new Envoy of President Medvedev.