A pro-Russian Moldova or a independent Transnistria ?
He left a day before the Summit G 20 of the USA that will gather all the great leaders of the world, determined to find solutions to the crisis of increasingly serious global economy. But until then, today the attention of the press agencies in Eastern Europe will focus on the Summit of Heads of Government of CIS, whose works will take place in the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
Warning that is due mostly to the summit of the presence of Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin. To Chisinau will reach Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, too. Georgia, which filed a request for removal from the CIS, has not confirmed the presence.
According to Deutsche Welle, to carry out in good conditions to the Summit “protest actions of teachers dissatisfied with the salaries of about 40 dollars that they receive were quashed by government promises, the problem of heat, which was missing in Chisinau, has been temporarily resolved by the Government, police studded city and route of flight schedule at the airport in Chisinau has been given over his head. ”
However, “three opposition political parties and have publicly announced their intention to meet with the Russian premier, Vladimir Putin, in Chisinau in protest actions. The European Movement and National Liberal Party began yesterday protest action near Russian Embassy in Chisinau, and today, the Liberal Party of Moldova will organize a demonstration to protest next to the Republic Palace where will conduct the CIS summit. organizers of the protest actions have announced that they would require the withdrawal of army and Russian tank in the Republic of Moldova”.
For the political scene in Chisinau, more important than the Summit agenda is bilateral meeting that Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin has scheduled with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, during which the issue will be discussed the solution of Transnistria region. According to political analyst from Chisinau, this meeting is practically the last hope of the leaders in Chisinau to obtain with Russia help a settlement of the dispute, after Tiraspol rejected any form of dialogue.
To show the West that can resolve frozen conflicts and peacefully, after the conflict in Georgia, the Kremlin tried – unsuccessfully so far – to bring the same table on President Vladimir Voronin and the leader of the separatist Tiraspol, Igor Smirnov. In other words, Putin would resolve what Medvedev has only promised. Russian media mentions a possible “slaughter” of Smirnov, “but if the issue of dismissal Transnistrian leader, it will have a greater importance for Moldovan side. Russia will use as a currency exchange in a deal more seriously, about the prospects of integration of Moldova and NATO maintain the Russian military presence in the region “, says” Nezavisimaya Gazeta “.
What options are Russia at this time?
1.To “influence” upcoming elections in Moldova for the purposes of obtaining a parliament majority prorus, faithful policy and decisions of Moscow – perhaps in exchange for giving up Igor Smirnov.
2.To recognize the independence of Transnistria (after the previous Abkhazia and Ossetia, the reaction of international political scene will be anemia, especially that it comes from an area where the West has no interest too high).
Personally I believe (could be wrong) that Moscow would choose the first option that would bring a substantial political gain in realizing the wishes of regional power. A pro-Russian Moldova, followed possibly by a pro-Russian Ukraine is even more than Russia can hope at this time. Recognizing the independence of Transnistria would give implicit continued Russian military presence in the area, but would affect the image and strong enough to crush Russia after the conflict with Georgia. Either Russia has diplomatic backstage diligence to resume serious negotiations with the European Union (EU Russia Summit – which starts today in Nisa). Admission presence of military troops can get easier with the Moldovan Parliament and change the status of neutral country.