Putin’s Russia is another

At the end of last week have reached the 10th anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s rise up as leadership position at the Kremlin and in policy of the world. From his appointment as prime minister (8 August 1999), Russia experienced a sinuous evolution from the unstable and semi-democratic state to sovereign democracy of today. Thus, between two working visits, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has celebrated the anniversary of ten years of successful political career through a new series of photos worthy of a pictorial in FHM. Unfortunately, for a country at the sinister top of deaths caused by heart disease or AIDS, that the Premier is in excellent physical form does not constitute a solution to problems of health system that the Russian Government tries without much success to solve. But that is another discussion altogether.IMG_8157

Returning to the “putinist decade” in post-Soviet history, of the popularity of Vladimir Putin is due to the fact that, beyond constantly propaganda efforts, most Russians agree that after the “nightmare” during Elţîn time, in the “Putin Era” their life improved. In reality, improving socio-economic position of the middle class and ensuring the “survival threshold” for one third of the population was the interface behind that huge resources of Russia have been redistributed from oligarchies “evil” to the “good” and close new political structure. This aspect that made also tolerable and acceptable reduction the rights of citizens. Which, in turn, allowed the political system reform in accordance with their interests, without major obstacles from the opposition groups (now almost entirely reduced to silence). Despite Western concerns about democracy and human rights, Putin remains wildly popular and his power goes effectively unchallenged.

Russia’s post-Soviet downward slide has been slowed, if not reversed, since 2000 by President Vladimir Putin’s recentralization of power. But, beetwen re-painted declarative ideology, sketch by Vladislav Surkov & comp., and ideology practical for preferential sharing of the wealth of Russia discrepancies have become increasingly visible in time. And as ironic of destiny, the government of Prime Minister Putin was in a delicate position because the current economic crisis stressed how malignancy has been the stagnation of reforms, stagnation patronage of Vladimir Putin in time as was president. Since 2003, the Kremlin has aggressively reconsolidated state control over its energy sector, and has demonstrated an increasing willingness to use energy as a tool to manipulate the behavior of the states that depend on it. It became clear what economic analysts have observed much ago: an economy based mostly on the export of raw materials, particularly fuel, is a giant with feet of clay. And when it signs of collapse is difficult recovered in a bureaucratic system in which the power decision is ultracentralizate. In addition, the annihilation of political competition and limiting the rights of the press have deprived Vladimir Putin of a essential fact: information nuda, real,without makeup so necessary to decide learnedly. Thus the stability preached of the ideologies’s Kremlin, turns out to be, paradoxically, a neuralgia point of “Putin Era.” Overall, the power vertical system is fragile and mediocre worked. As for the future, the ideologist of Putin Doctrine have to working. Theoretically, Russia must exceed the economic crisis until the next presidential election. If you will happen or not remains to be seen.

In foreign policy, Russia was able to return to the great mass of decision makers in the world and make allies of basic on international stage (Italy, Germany, France). Moreover, strengthening the sphere of influence in the Asian and re-opening partnerships with Latin America and Africa have gone unnoticed partly because heated discussions among EU supporters of Russian Prime Minister and his opponents, following the repeated crises of gas generated by Russia and Ukraine. The way in which Russian officials have directed capital to areas where Russia has interests in the long term, the close relations between Kremlin and the Russian companies with large investments abroad, also how they have sought to gain political and mass-media influence in the “adoptive” country demonstrates good coordination between economic policy and external. Instead, the steep ups and downs, Russia has registered with the U.S. relationship, and the default with NATO, which was expected as a result of Russia revival globally.  Overall, slightly better than domestic plan.

In competition with 10-year anniversary of the “Putin Era”, the top posts of Blogosphera was in those days the first anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war. On this occasion, the Russian Premier avoided to avoided with certainly  the possibility of a new intervention, stating instead his hope that Georgian authorities have learned the lesson and that the situation will continue to be stable. But he is contradicts to the recent press release of the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, HE Alexander Churilin: “At the border between South Ossetia and Georgia again smell of a powder”. Also the two movies recently sent to the romanian press from Embassies of Russia and Georgia in Bucharest, in that the two parties accuse each other of the terrible tragedies of immortalized by the eye of video camera, are most handy evidence that media war continues, tensions accumulate steadily and situation is far from being considered definitively resolved. Seliger_2009

In bird’s-eye view, Russia is a country located in the top of contrasts and controversy. A huge expanse, with resources as huge, and ever more regions where the Russian population is a population minority. With regions where poverty and lack of perspective is at her home. Putin’s Russia is another. Much glamour, expensive  cars and luxurious offices of the top companies. And much, much propaganda. Maybe it’s time as loyal advisers of Vladimir Vladimirovich to tell him that  “Putin’s Russia” is becoming more in the eyes of russian people only Moscow and St. Petersburg. Despair of Russia and the problems (normal, in fact) of Russia’s Putin are two different agendas.

Published in Top Business Weeklypaper, no. 778/ 13-19 august 2009

The terrible day when began the russian-georgian war

In competition with 10-year anniversary of the “Putin Era”, the top posts of Blogosphera was in those days the first anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war. On this occasion, the Russian Premier avoided to avoided with certainly  the possibility of a new intervention, stating instead his hope that Georgian authorities have learned the lesson and that the situation will continue to be stable. But he is contradicts to the recent press release of the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, HE Alexander Churilin: “At the border between South Ossetia and Georgia again smell of a powder”. Also the two movies recently sent to the romanian press from Embassies of Russia and Georgia in Bucharest, in that the two parties accuse each other of the terrible tragedies of immortalized by the eye of video camera, are most handy evidence that media war continues, tensions accumulate steadily and situation is far from being considered definitively resolved. Moreover, in a future edition of international weeklypaper Top Business will publish one material on these issues. Now prefer to give the word of  the journalist  Vladimir Soloviev. Original text (in russian) can be read on his blog here.

V.Soloviev“I vividly remember that day a year ago. How probably all, all of us remember. We all waited for the opening of the Olympics but the Olympics  have stolen. And the war began. Couldn’t believe it. Or, I think just not wanted to believe. It seemed so stupid, illogical, strange. It was impossible to imagine that Georgia, a sister republic, whose people have lived so many centuries with us side by side, fought together, shared together the joys and sorrows, suddenly, through its official leaders undertake an act of aggression and start to bomb and shoot from heavy artillery, hail on brother Orthodox Ossetic people.
Orthodox Orthodox killed. Terrible day … Olympics was once forgotten… I remember that I tried to call and call the leadership of NTV, which I then worked. “I said, that could have come, for something to do ? And it was said: «Well.  Not need ». At the «Silver rain» then I wasn’t OnAir. And there too, it was decided not to interrupt,  such was limited the information releases.
Today in Beslan was made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev with a brilliant speech, strong, powerful, emotional. And you can see how what he said, to defer to his heart. He certainly proved himself during the war as  a true leader ,of the country’s Supreme Leader. And it is not easy. But when you are the side of the truth, even the most difficult decision you can take, you know that is need.
These days, of course, in the beginning war was very difficult because Russia was surrounded by a lie, lie, constant denunciate. I was abroad and did what he could. Not only blogs, also talked with foreign friends, tried to enter the foreign media, to give any comments. And both were very, very many.  I appreciated the response of Mr. Churkin, Mr Lavrov. Then, when came the “heavy artillery of informations”, and that means the interviews and statements by the leadership of the country: Mr Medvedev, the President, Prime Minister Putin, then knowledge gradually it became corrected.
… difficult time … hard day, and it is a pity to the families of the deceased, and it is a pity to Ossetic people and feel sorry for the Georgian people, because it is this shame, of course, it is not necessary, it could have been avoided. And we should have been avoided. We would like to see sooner or later the Georgian people to realize the full horror of what happened and not that repented though … although why not? … repented in front of the Ossetian people.
In those days, wrote an excellent, excellent article in my blog, my friend the lawyer Shota Gorgadze. And how much stuff he then listened to his address, how many threats. But honest people will always remain decent human beings, how could they not been threatened and how they may have tried to influence.
I do not want that on my life and the lives of my children have been such fratricidal war. I do not want. I want when the Olympics began, the concern only sport battles … ” ( Vladimir Soloviev )

"Call a friend"…

Kokoiti declared, in a circle discussion organized by the Kremlin in Sochi, that wants to Russia … but how the sincerity may seriously harm of political strategies, a few hours later (probably warned that rushed with “kiss in Red Square”) no longer wants, or more precisely than expected in to them …
given mitigating circumstances … to the policy of little town to politics great world powers, Mr. Kokoiti has much to learn …
Tip: next time, when you are not sure what you want to declare (that is what’s the answer correctly!) the best is “Call a friend” ….

Mizele conflictului din Caucaz

Mizele conflictului din Caucaz

Multi prieteni m-au întrebat în ultimele trei zile care este opinia mea despre conflictul din Caucaz. Am scris deja nişte lucruri. Dar nu mă grăbesc să fac afirmaţii tranşante din cel putin doua motive: nu detin informatii relevante, in sensul de valide, de la fata locului si e prea devreme pentru a trage linie şi a calcula câştigurile şi pierderile părţilor implicate. Chiar dacă unele sunt deja vizibile. Mă voi limita a aduce în discutie câteva aspecte ce merită ceva mai multă atenţie:
1. Este acest conflict comparabil cu precedentul Kosovo ? La prima vedere, raspunsul e cu siguranta unul pozitiv. Un exemplu tipic al ceea ce numim in general, conflicte inghetate. Avem o republica separatista care se vrea independenta / in dependenţa de Federatia Rusa. Partile se acuza simultan de epurari etnice. Şi fiecare doreste sa-şi impuna partea sa de adevar. Pentru ca exista un adevar al fiecarei parti. Si ca de obicei, in aceasta ecuatie, rolul populatiei se reduce la masa de manevra. Benjamin Franklin spunea ca „Democratia inseamna atunci când doi lupi si un miel decid ce vor să serveasca la prânz”. Sunt sigura că aţi înteles ce am vrut să spun. Analizând mai atent, insă, vom constata ca lucrurile in cazul Osetiei de Sud sunt sensibil diferite fată de Kosovo. Republica separatista se afla intr-o zona in care se intretaie doua axe importante cu interesele economice aferente: Moscova – Erevan – Teheran şi Baku – Tbilisi – Marea Neagra, adica iesirea spre Europa. Petrolul caucazian şi dorinta Moscovei de a-si mentine sfera de influenta în zonă sunt mizele importante ale acestui conflict.
2. De ce comunitatea internationala a reactionat abia vizibil ? Pentru că vorbim de aceeasi comunitate internationala care, indiferenta la insistentele USA, la Summitul NATO de la Bucuresti a spus „pass” Georgiei in privinţa MAP (membership action plan). Deocamdată, Europa este dependenta de gazul rusesc. Şi nu se preved schimbări de fond in perioada urmatoare, astfel că liderii europeni nu doresc un conflict deschis (chiar şi numai la nivel de principii) cu Rusia. La fel de adevărat e faptul că ambele tabere desfasoară un razboi informatic de proportii, si e riscant sa te pozitionezi de o parte sau de alta fara a şti exact cum stau lucrurile. Presedintele Saakashvili a riscat, sperând într-o interventie NATO in favoarea sa. Un risc hazardat. Cel putin după cum stau lucrurile in acest moment. Din pacate, n-am văzut până acum nici un interes real pentru soarta zecilor de mii de refugiati, cu exceptia unei cereri ONU de acces in zona pentru misiunile umanitare. La o solutie in cadrul reuniunii Consiliului de Securitate al ONU oricum nu se astepta nimeni.
3. Ce rol are Ucraina in acest context ? Chiar dacă au existat vagi acuzatii formulate de Rusia privind implicarea Ucrainei in acest conflict, deocamdată nimeni n-a pus in discutie acest aspect. Probabil, din cauza suspiciunilor generale care planează în acest moment asupra tuturor declaraţiilor Moscovei. Să nu uităm că Ucraina chiar este o putere în spatiul est-european, care îşi doreşte la randul său să nu mai depindă de resursele energetice ale Rusiei. Si care la nivel de autorităti vrea in NATO.
Despre cum „gold goes to Vladimir Putin” din nou, voi vorbi data viitoare.

P.S.: Doi jurnalisti au murit. Alti doi au fost raniti. Evident, in Osetia. Pentru ca noi sa stim in timp real ce se intampla. Pe cât este posibil. De aceea, merită respectul nostru iar familiile lor intreaga noastră compasiune.

G.I.

V. Putin: “Военную агрессию Тбилиси он назвал смертельным ударом по территориальной целостности самой Грузии”/”Georgia şi-a dat o lovitură mortală integrităţii teritoriale”

Una din cunoştinţe mele din Moscova îşi exprima ieri dimineaţa îngrijorarea că Rusia va fi implicată într-un nou conflict. Evident, în confruntarea dintre forţele georgiene şi separaţiştii din Oseţia, Rusia nu putea fi indiferentă, dacă luăm în calcul faptul că dintre cei 82.000 de cetăţeni ai Oseţiei, majoritatea o reprezintă cetăţeni de origine rusă. Dacă reacţia autorităţilor de la Moscova a fost cea mai fericită ori nu, reprezintă însă altă discuţie. Îngrijorătoare mi se pare, în acest moment lipsa de reacţie a cancelariilor europene (unele susţinătoare necondiţionate ale ex-preşedintelui, actual premier Vladimir Putin). Speculaţiile conform cărora “este perioadă de vacanţă” nu poate fi susţinută, mai ales că prin instaurarea de către Saakashvili a Legii Marţiale, U.E. are în acest moment un conflict grav la graniţele sale. Preşedintele Bush a cerut încetarea focului, acuzele la adresa Rusiei fiind implicite. Explicit, pentru situaţia dezastruoasă din Oseţia, deocamdată, nu există vinovaţi. Există doar un război care afectează mii de civili nevinovaţi. În replică, în timp ce Saakashvili poza in victimă în faţa preşedintelui USA, preşedintele Medvedev l-a asigurat pe George Bush că: “the only way out of the tragic crisis initiated by the Georgian leadership in Tbilisi is the withdrawal of its armed forces from the conflict zone, the return to the process of peace agreements and, most importantly, the signing of a legally binding agreement abjuring the use of force” (good point, mr. Medvedev !). Din păcate, excelentul discurs prezidenţial este contrazis de realităţile din teren (conflictul se extinde de la oră la oră). Mai mult, premierul Putin vorbeşte o altă limbă decât Kremlinul. Întors de la Beijing, premierul Putin a ajuns astăzi la Vladikavkaz, unde a declarat că “prin agresiunea din Osetia, Georgia şi-a dat o lovitură mortală integrităţii teritoriale”. Încă o dată Vladimir Putin dovedeşte că atunci când i se permite (şi i se permite!) poate adopta o atitudine de dialog constructivă.
G.I.