Putin and energy diplomacy strategy

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Paris for a two-day working visit. Before the visit’s formal events got underway, he had breakfast with former French President Jacques Chirac, held restricted-attendance talks with French Prime Minister Francois Fillon and participated in the 14th meeting of the Russian-French Commission on Bilateral Cooperation at the level of prime ministers. Prime ministers Putin and Fillon met with top managers from both Russian and French companies, signed the summary document of the 14th session of the Russian-French Commission and gave a joint press conference.

“Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin won another victory for his aggressive energy diplomacy strategy Friday, signing a deal bringing French investment to a pipeline project” reports AFP.

In a successful trip that worried Russia’s nervous neighbours, Putin also secured French investment to save the struggling Lada car maker and a promise that France will consider selling Moscow a huge amphibious assault ship.

I will return with an analysis on this subject.

Romania – Presidential election

Romanians vote for a president on Sunday in the first round of an election that is crucial to breaking a political impasse that has blocked the recession-blighted country’s access to international financial aid. According to opinion polls, struggling to enter in the second round of presidential elections to give between three candidates: Traian Basescu, Crin Antonescu and Mircea Geoana. Financial Times make a brief characterization of the three favorites:

“Mr Basescu, a former sea captain and gifted communicator, has promised to continue the fight against corruption, a campaign on which only limited progress has been made over the past five years. He is also advocating popular measures that include abolishing one of parliament’s two chambers and cutting the number of MPs. Mr Geoana, a former foreign minister and ambassador to Washington, promises a more technocratic alternative to Mr Basescu’s boisterous and divisive style of politics, with plans for targeted recession-busting spending on infrastructure that he says could raise Romania’s growth rate. Mr. Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the National Liberals, the third largest party, promises tax cuts.”

Unfortunately, despite serious problems in the economy of the country, the second largest of the EU’s new members in Eastern Europe, the campaign has focused on non-economic issues.

Exit poll (12. PM – Bucharest Time):

CCSB: Traian Basescu: 32% ; Mircea Geoana: 34% ; Crin Antonescu: 18%

INSOMAR: Traian Basescu: 33% ; Mircea Geoana: 36%;  Crin Antonescu: 18%

CSOP: Traian Basescu: 34%; Mircea Geoana: 34%; Crin Antonescu: 20%

UPDATE  – Exit poll (15.00)

CCSB: Traian Basescu 30%, Mircea Geoana 28%, Crin Antonescu 22%
INSOMAR: Traian Basescu 30%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%
CURS: Traian Băsescu 36%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%
CSOP: Traian Basescu 36%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%

It would be much to discuss about the credibility of public polling institutes. So far these are unofficial figures. The official will be given at 21 hours after closing the voting ballot.

UPDATE 2 – Exit poll (21.00)

CCSB: Traian Basescu 34,1%,  Mircea Geoană 30,9,  Crin Antonescu 22,1

INSOMAR: Traian Basescu 32,8%,  Mircea Geoana 31,7%,  Crin Antonescu 21,8%

CSOP: Traian Basescu 33,2%, Mircea Geoana 30,3%, Crin Antonescu 22,0%

Were present to election over 50% of citizens voting. In the second round (6 decembrie 2009) will meet Traian Basescu and Mircea Geoana.

Summit UE – Russia / Stockholm 2009

Cooperation, in terms of the Treaty of Lisbon, is the central theme of Russia-EU Summit, said the Russian president to meeting in Stockholm. Dmitry Medvedev said that despite “asperities”, Moscow and Brussels have many spheres in which their interests intersect, among others, the fight against new challenges and dangers. According to him, “without agreement on these issues can not be a normal vital activity in Europe”. President Medvedev drew attention once more European partners on the proposed Energy Charter by Russia in addition to existing documents in the sphere of energy security.
In turn, Fredrik Reinfeld, Prime Minister of Sweden, the country chairing the EU, expressed the hope that it will conduct a successful dialogue on issues of climate change and combating financial crisis and economic consequences. However, Sweden’s PM describes Russia’s human rights situation as a “cause for concern” after an EU-Russia Summit in Stockholm.

The Summit EU – Russia was adopted Memorandum on the early warning of emergency energy. The document was signed by Moscow and Brussels two days ago. The document stipulating the joint actions of Russia and the EU in case of disruption of gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine. Memorandum to defend Europa the operations Ukraina, which is the principal Russian gas transit country. It comprises 13 parts showing the concepts of “emergency” and “early warning” also are set for action parties disruptions of energy supplies from Russia to Europe. According to experts, the signing of the Memorandum of emergency in the energy field creates a mechanism that allows to avoid new “tricks” of Ukraine in the gas transit. In the same context, notice that on November 19, Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, will meet in Yalta with Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko to discuss, among other things, optimizing the Russian-Ukrainian relations in the gas transit.

Also, Russia and the EU have signed five agreements, including the implementation of cooperation programs in the border area. These documents refer mainly to the funding and implementation of programs of cooperation Border “Kolartik”, “Karelia” South-East Finland-Russia, Lithuania and Latvia-Estonia-Russia-Poland-Russia. The documents were signed by Russian Minister of Regional Development, Victor Basarghin and eurocomisarul on Foreign Affairs, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, in the presence of President Dmitry Medvedev, European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso and Prime Minister of Sweden, Fredrik Reinfeldt. President Dmitry Medvedev said he hoped to increase Swedish investment in Russia’s automobile industry and information technologies.

IMF has suspended talks with Romania

Delegation of the International Monetary Fund has suspended talks with Romania. They will reload after the normalization of political situation and investing a new government. Also, the IMF and the European Commission announced that Romania will not receive the next tranche of money in December 2009.

IMF chief delegate, Jeffrey Franks said:  “We made excellent program in talks with authorities in the last 10 days. We believe that we can quickly finalize the analysis of economic evolution in so short a time to release the next trance if the political situation will resolve “.

Elena Flores (European Commission): “Once the political incertitude will overcome and there will be an official budget for 2010 will be able to finalize and release of loan tranches”.

Vice-President US, Joe Biden – “We believe that a better relationship with Russia is the benefit of all”

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was on tour in Poland, Czech Republic and Romania, between 20-24 October 2009.
Regarding the visits to Poland and the Czech Republic, analysts Stratfor states defining its relations with the United States, where Obama administration’s decision to abandon the missile shield project promoted by ex-president George W. Bush.

Today, Vice President Biden met with Romanian President Traian Basescu, with dismissed premier Emil Boc and with Opposition leaders.  Also, he gave a public speech in the Hall of the University Library of Romania. In his speech in Bucharest, Joe Biden sent several important messages for the European partners and NATO allies.  Biden sent the European partners that “the U.S. is still a player in the region and an ally in security”. But according to political analysts, beyond these messages, Biden’s tour remains one of consolation.

But let’s see what the main ideas and the context in which they were uttered.

Visit of Vice – U.S. President in Bucharest takes place one day before the  start of presidential election campaign. Thus the joint statement after meeting with Romanian President Traian Basescu can detect two aspects: administration in Washington has not had a top partner in the person of the current president, but is open to dialogue, irrespective of who will win the Presidential elections. Also, the fact that the speech for European partners was elected Bucharest,  stresses stronger bilateral relationship between Romania and the United States. Moreover, can talk  about  strategic location that America gives to Romania on his interests and in the design of the NATO Alliance in the Eastern European area.

On the public diplomacy, Joe Biden tried in his discourse from the University Library, to ensure that countries in the East European region that, despite a change of Obama discourse, Washington has not changed security objectives. But while he insisted that: “We believe that a better relationship with Russia is benefit of all. Pragmatic relationship, too”. Meanwhile, he said the reconfiguration of the missile shield is not a favor done to Russia, but a more efficient way to meet new security challenges. Biden reiterated the importance of Article 5 and firmly reject the imposition of spheres of influence between global powers. “Nothing without you, nothing more than your desire” were sure NATO partners of U.S.

In the same context: “Any missile defense system in Europe should be collective,”  said on Thursday the spokesman of Russian Foreign Ministry, Andrei Nesterenko, quoted by RIA Novosti. He also stressed that “Russia wants to start with Washington a careful assessment of the new U.S. missile shield in Europe”, adding that Moscow does not consider that U.S. plans to place SM-3 missiles in Poland are already established.
Nesterenko’s statement comes after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk  said Wednesday – when U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visit to Warsaw – that Poland is ready to participate in the new U.S. missile shield, as this is especially possible location in 2011 in Poland of  U.S. SM-3 missile.

The same important: Beyond public diplomacy in a speech in Bucharest, the representative of the White House for the first time spoke about the Romanian-American partnership in concrete Constanta-Trieste pipeline project. That while the premiers Putin, Berlusconi and Erdogan discussed again about  South Stream.