Nevsky Express crash might be terror attack ?

Yesterday evening a terrible news to violate the beginning of the weekend of Russia. Prime Minister Putin has not had time to enjoy the successes visit to France. At least 26 people are reported dead, 95 more injured after an express train traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg derailed. The accident occurred in a remote area, halfway between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Rescuers took them two hours to reach the disaster place. The hours that followed brought new details of the tragedy. And a hypothesis. That brought back to the Russians spectrum of fear and insecurity: terrorist attack. “The crash was caused by a homemade explosive equivalent to 7 kilograms of TNT”, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) head Aleksandr Bortnikov said. However, a criminal case on charges of terrorism and illegal storage of weapons or explosives has been opened regarding the train crash, the Prosecutor General’s Office informed.

President Medvedev has held a videoconference with officials at the headquarters of the Emergencies Ministry, who have briefed him on the situation. Also, a terror attack could be the cause of the accident, said Russian Railways company chief. According to him, the Friday explosion resembles a similar accident on 16 August 2007. In August 2007, an explosion on the tracks derailed the Nevsky Express, injuring 60 people in what authorities called a terrorist act. Some 27,000 passengers on 60 trains were facing delays Saturday as a result of the accident, Russian State TV reported.

The biggest problem resulting from the train crash is the return of a social mood of panic and fear. North-Ost and Beslan episodes left trauma difficult to delete from the mind of the Russian population. But not only that. Because, in Russia a few things are as it seem at first sight, doubts arose on the assumption terrorist attack. Russian authorities could invoke a terrorist attack to cover up an accident caused by old and inadequate infrastructure ? Here is a presumption that officials have little possibility to remove from the minds of people, no matter how many explosive devices are found at the accident site. And if it was a terrorist attack, how was it possible? An answer, whatever it, will not remove the feeling of lack of services and security organs.

Putin and energy diplomacy strategy

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Paris for a two-day working visit. Before the visit’s formal events got underway, he had breakfast with former French President Jacques Chirac, held restricted-attendance talks with French Prime Minister Francois Fillon and participated in the 14th meeting of the Russian-French Commission on Bilateral Cooperation at the level of prime ministers. Prime ministers Putin and Fillon met with top managers from both Russian and French companies, signed the summary document of the 14th session of the Russian-French Commission and gave a joint press conference.

“Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin won another victory for his aggressive energy diplomacy strategy Friday, signing a deal bringing French investment to a pipeline project” reports AFP.

In a successful trip that worried Russia’s nervous neighbours, Putin also secured French investment to save the struggling Lada car maker and a promise that France will consider selling Moscow a huge amphibious assault ship.

I will return with an analysis on this subject.

Romania – Presidential election

Romanians vote for a president on Sunday in the first round of an election that is crucial to breaking a political impasse that has blocked the recession-blighted country’s access to international financial aid. According to opinion polls, struggling to enter in the second round of presidential elections to give between three candidates: Traian Basescu, Crin Antonescu and Mircea Geoana. Financial Times make a brief characterization of the three favorites:

“Mr Basescu, a former sea captain and gifted communicator, has promised to continue the fight against corruption, a campaign on which only limited progress has been made over the past five years. He is also advocating popular measures that include abolishing one of parliament’s two chambers and cutting the number of MPs. Mr Geoana, a former foreign minister and ambassador to Washington, promises a more technocratic alternative to Mr Basescu’s boisterous and divisive style of politics, with plans for targeted recession-busting spending on infrastructure that he says could raise Romania’s growth rate. Mr. Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the National Liberals, the third largest party, promises tax cuts.”

Unfortunately, despite serious problems in the economy of the country, the second largest of the EU’s new members in Eastern Europe, the campaign has focused on non-economic issues.

Exit poll (12. PM – Bucharest Time):

CCSB: Traian Basescu: 32% ; Mircea Geoana: 34% ; Crin Antonescu: 18%

INSOMAR: Traian Basescu: 33% ; Mircea Geoana: 36%;  Crin Antonescu: 18%

CSOP: Traian Basescu: 34%; Mircea Geoana: 34%; Crin Antonescu: 20%

UPDATE  – Exit poll (15.00)

CCSB: Traian Basescu 30%, Mircea Geoana 28%, Crin Antonescu 22%
INSOMAR: Traian Basescu 30%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%
CURS: Traian Băsescu 36%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%
CSOP: Traian Basescu 36%, Mircea Geoana 30%, Crin Antonescu 22%

It would be much to discuss about the credibility of public polling institutes. So far these are unofficial figures. The official will be given at 21 hours after closing the voting ballot.

UPDATE 2 – Exit poll (21.00)

CCSB: Traian Basescu 34,1%,  Mircea Geoană 30,9,  Crin Antonescu 22,1

INSOMAR: Traian Basescu 32,8%,  Mircea Geoana 31,7%,  Crin Antonescu 21,8%

CSOP: Traian Basescu 33,2%, Mircea Geoana 30,3%, Crin Antonescu 22,0%

Were present to election over 50% of citizens voting. In the second round (6 decembrie 2009) will meet Traian Basescu and Mircea Geoana.

Summit UE – Russia / Stockholm 2009

Cooperation, in terms of the Treaty of Lisbon, is the central theme of Russia-EU Summit, said the Russian president to meeting in Stockholm. Dmitry Medvedev said that despite “asperities”, Moscow and Brussels have many spheres in which their interests intersect, among others, the fight against new challenges and dangers. According to him, “without agreement on these issues can not be a normal vital activity in Europe”. President Medvedev drew attention once more European partners on the proposed Energy Charter by Russia in addition to existing documents in the sphere of energy security.
In turn, Fredrik Reinfeld, Prime Minister of Sweden, the country chairing the EU, expressed the hope that it will conduct a successful dialogue on issues of climate change and combating financial crisis and economic consequences. However, Sweden’s PM describes Russia’s human rights situation as a “cause for concern” after an EU-Russia Summit in Stockholm.

The Summit EU – Russia was adopted Memorandum on the early warning of emergency energy. The document was signed by Moscow and Brussels two days ago. The document stipulating the joint actions of Russia and the EU in case of disruption of gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine. Memorandum to defend Europa the operations Ukraina, which is the principal Russian gas transit country. It comprises 13 parts showing the concepts of “emergency” and “early warning” also are set for action parties disruptions of energy supplies from Russia to Europe. According to experts, the signing of the Memorandum of emergency in the energy field creates a mechanism that allows to avoid new “tricks” of Ukraine in the gas transit. In the same context, notice that on November 19, Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, will meet in Yalta with Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko to discuss, among other things, optimizing the Russian-Ukrainian relations in the gas transit.

Also, Russia and the EU have signed five agreements, including the implementation of cooperation programs in the border area. These documents refer mainly to the funding and implementation of programs of cooperation Border “Kolartik”, “Karelia” South-East Finland-Russia, Lithuania and Latvia-Estonia-Russia-Poland-Russia. The documents were signed by Russian Minister of Regional Development, Victor Basarghin and eurocomisarul on Foreign Affairs, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, in the presence of President Dmitry Medvedev, European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso and Prime Minister of Sweden, Fredrik Reinfeldt. President Dmitry Medvedev said he hoped to increase Swedish investment in Russia’s automobile industry and information technologies.

Russia-China tandem – the alliance and the geostrategic competition

Discussions on energy security and geostrategic new construction resulting from this remains a topical issue on the agenda of all stakeholders. Developments in the first decade of this century have called Eurasia the focal point of future geopolitical strategy.

Among major global players that dispute (more or less discrete) their capacity to bring this area in its own sphere of influence includes China, Russia and the United States. So in this context, analysts have repeatedly questioned the extent to which traditional and fraternal friendship means a Russian-Chinese strategic partnership to counter U.S. influence in the Far East and as far as a fierce struggle for recognition of regional leadership.
The first level of Russia-China relationship, economic, is the most frequently cited to authorities in Moscow and those in Beijing. Seen through the eyes of the Russian Far East bordering China looks like an eternal and historic threat. Silent siege over one million Chinese illegal immigrants that crossing the Russian border and work as laborers, farmers and traders, and Russian local authorities seem unable to stop the phenomenon. Their fears are hardly heard in Moscow. Or, if they hear, the Kremlin has a different view: China offers economic opportunities. And growth in the last decade also is a result of massive exports to China. [full article]

Published in Cadran Politic Review, nov. 2009 edition