Iraq – Second Afghanistan

capt.photo_Iraq blastSome time ago I said that the celebration with the trumpets of  the sovereignty of Iraq (with the notice of withdrawal of U.S. troops) seems to me a bad joke.  Beyond the purely political statements of Prime Minister Malik, Iraqi authorities are unable to manage the ‘barrel of powder’ of country’s endowment. Security obviously cannot be. And yesterday proved it is very clear.

Conform Associated Press, “nearly simultaneous truck bombs struck Iraq’s Foreign and Finance ministries Wednesday as a wave of explosions killed at least 95 people, bringing the weaknesses of Iraqi security forces into sharp focus less than two months after U.S. forces withdrew from urban areas. It was the deadliest day of coordinated bombings since Feb. 1, 2008, when two suicide bombers killed 109 people at pet markets in Baghdad. More than 600 were wounded in Wednesday’s blasts”.

The horrible  carnage shocked the Shiite-led government and dealt a devastating blow to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s efforts to return Baghdad to normal and reinforce his chances in parliamentary elections in January. Moreover, American troops were seen in the situation of not being able to intervene only in the limits of agreement between the White House and Baghdad. U.S. transition teams assisted with security cordons, medics helped the wounded and explosives experts to clear areas of potential bombs. The White House described the attacks as “senseless violence” but the Pentagon noted that they would not affect the US military’s plans to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011. Ok. And what will happen with Iraq? Will be an area of ongoing conflict and insecurity with implications not only locally. Who will manage and how?

  • A interesting analysis about “Iraq – Endgame”, published by George Friedman -  Stratfor, can read here.

Georgia turn off “the business” with CIS

The Roki Tunnel_South OssetiaToday, Georgia is to the final to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States. Georgia’s decision to leave CIS was taken by the georgian Parliament on 14 August 2008, and four days later the Foreign Ministry informed the Executive Council of the CIS about this decision. A period followed by 12 months for completion of the procedures stipulated by the CIS. It is the first time in the history of political organization, founded in 1992 with former Soviet republics Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, when use is made of this provision to the leave statute of community by a state.

According to officials in Tbilisi, the withdrawal is because: “in August 2008, a member country of the CIS – Russia has declared war to other countries of the CIS States, has occupied territories and it was recognized as independent entities. Meanwhile Georgian authorities expressed their intention to continue working bilaterally with the countries of the CIS, except Russia obviously.

Putin’s Russia is another

At the end of last week have reached the 10th anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s rise up as leadership position at the Kremlin and in policy of the world. From his appointment as prime minister (8 August 1999), Russia experienced a sinuous evolution from the unstable and semi-democratic state to sovereign democracy of today. Thus, between two working visits, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has celebrated the anniversary of ten years of successful political career through a new series of photos worthy of a pictorial in FHM. Unfortunately, for a country at the sinister top of deaths caused by heart disease or AIDS, that the Premier is in excellent physical form does not constitute a solution to problems of health system that the Russian Government tries without much success to solve. But that is another discussion altogether.IMG_8157

Returning to the “putinist decade” in post-Soviet history, of the popularity of Vladimir Putin is due to the fact that, beyond constantly propaganda efforts, most Russians agree that after the “nightmare” during Elţîn time, in the “Putin Era” their life improved. In reality, improving socio-economic position of the middle class and ensuring the “survival threshold” for one third of the population was the interface behind that huge resources of Russia have been redistributed from oligarchies “evil” to the “good” and close new political structure. This aspect that made also tolerable and acceptable reduction the rights of citizens. Which, in turn, allowed the political system reform in accordance with their interests, without major obstacles from the opposition groups (now almost entirely reduced to silence). Despite Western concerns about democracy and human rights, Putin remains wildly popular and his power goes effectively unchallenged.

Russia’s post-Soviet downward slide has been slowed, if not reversed, since 2000 by President Vladimir Putin’s recentralization of power. But, beetwen re-painted declarative ideology, sketch by Vladislav Surkov & comp., and ideology practical for preferential sharing of the wealth of Russia discrepancies have become increasingly visible in time. And as ironic of destiny, the government of Prime Minister Putin was in a delicate position because the current economic crisis stressed how malignancy has been the stagnation of reforms, stagnation patronage of Vladimir Putin in time as was president. Since 2003, the Kremlin has aggressively reconsolidated state control over its energy sector, and has demonstrated an increasing willingness to use energy as a tool to manipulate the behavior of the states that depend on it. It became clear what economic analysts have observed much ago: an economy based mostly on the export of raw materials, particularly fuel, is a giant with feet of clay. And when it signs of collapse is difficult recovered in a bureaucratic system in which the power decision is ultracentralizate. In addition, the annihilation of political competition and limiting the rights of the press have deprived Vladimir Putin of a essential fact: information nuda, real,without makeup so necessary to decide learnedly. Thus the stability preached of the ideologies’s Kremlin, turns out to be, paradoxically, a neuralgia point of “Putin Era.” Overall, the power vertical system is fragile and mediocre worked. As for the future, the ideologist of Putin Doctrine have to working. Theoretically, Russia must exceed the economic crisis until the next presidential election. If you will happen or not remains to be seen.

In foreign policy, Russia was able to return to the great mass of decision makers in the world and make allies of basic on international stage (Italy, Germany, France). Moreover, strengthening the sphere of influence in the Asian and re-opening partnerships with Latin America and Africa have gone unnoticed partly because heated discussions among EU supporters of Russian Prime Minister and his opponents, following the repeated crises of gas generated by Russia and Ukraine. The way in which Russian officials have directed capital to areas where Russia has interests in the long term, the close relations between Kremlin and the Russian companies with large investments abroad, also how they have sought to gain political and mass-media influence in the “adoptive” country demonstrates good coordination between economic policy and external. Instead, the steep ups and downs, Russia has registered with the U.S. relationship, and the default with NATO, which was expected as a result of Russia revival globally.  Overall, slightly better than domestic plan.

In competition with 10-year anniversary of the “Putin Era”, the top posts of Blogosphera was in those days the first anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war. On this occasion, the Russian Premier avoided to avoided with certainly  the possibility of a new intervention, stating instead his hope that Georgian authorities have learned the lesson and that the situation will continue to be stable. But he is contradicts to the recent press release of the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, HE Alexander Churilin: “At the border between South Ossetia and Georgia again smell of a powder”. Also the two movies recently sent to the romanian press from Embassies of Russia and Georgia in Bucharest, in that the two parties accuse each other of the terrible tragedies of immortalized by the eye of video camera, are most handy evidence that media war continues, tensions accumulate steadily and situation is far from being considered definitively resolved. Seliger_2009

In bird’s-eye view, Russia is a country located in the top of contrasts and controversy. A huge expanse, with resources as huge, and ever more regions where the Russian population is a population minority. With regions where poverty and lack of perspective is at her home. Putin’s Russia is another. Much glamour, expensive  cars and luxurious offices of the top companies. And much, much propaganda. Maybe it’s time as loyal advisers of Vladimir Vladimirovich to tell him that  “Putin’s Russia” is becoming more in the eyes of russian people only Moscow and St. Petersburg. Despair of Russia and the problems (normal, in fact) of Russia’s Putin are two different agendas.

Published in Top Business Weeklypaper, no. 778/ 13-19 august 2009

The terrible day when began the russian-georgian war

In competition with 10-year anniversary of the “Putin Era”, the top posts of Blogosphera was in those days the first anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war. On this occasion, the Russian Premier avoided to avoided with certainly  the possibility of a new intervention, stating instead his hope that Georgian authorities have learned the lesson and that the situation will continue to be stable. But he is contradicts to the recent press release of the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, HE Alexander Churilin: “At the border between South Ossetia and Georgia again smell of a powder”. Also the two movies recently sent to the romanian press from Embassies of Russia and Georgia in Bucharest, in that the two parties accuse each other of the terrible tragedies of immortalized by the eye of video camera, are most handy evidence that media war continues, tensions accumulate steadily and situation is far from being considered definitively resolved. Moreover, in a future edition of international weeklypaper Top Business will publish one material on these issues. Now prefer to give the word of  the journalist  Vladimir Soloviev. Original text (in russian) can be read on his blog here.

V.Soloviev“I vividly remember that day a year ago. How probably all, all of us remember. We all waited for the opening of the Olympics but the Olympics  have stolen. And the war began. Couldn’t believe it. Or, I think just not wanted to believe. It seemed so stupid, illogical, strange. It was impossible to imagine that Georgia, a sister republic, whose people have lived so many centuries with us side by side, fought together, shared together the joys and sorrows, suddenly, through its official leaders undertake an act of aggression and start to bomb and shoot from heavy artillery, hail on brother Orthodox Ossetic people.
Orthodox Orthodox killed. Terrible day … Olympics was once forgotten… I remember that I tried to call and call the leadership of NTV, which I then worked. “I said, that could have come, for something to do ? And it was said: «Well.  Not need ». At the «Silver rain» then I wasn’t OnAir. And there too, it was decided not to interrupt,  such was limited the information releases.
Today in Beslan was made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev with a brilliant speech, strong, powerful, emotional. And you can see how what he said, to defer to his heart. He certainly proved himself during the war as  a true leader ,of the country’s Supreme Leader. And it is not easy. But when you are the side of the truth, even the most difficult decision you can take, you know that is need.
These days, of course, in the beginning war was very difficult because Russia was surrounded by a lie, lie, constant denunciate. I was abroad and did what he could. Not only blogs, also talked with foreign friends, tried to enter the foreign media, to give any comments. And both were very, very many.  I appreciated the response of Mr. Churkin, Mr Lavrov. Then, when came the “heavy artillery of informations”, and that means the interviews and statements by the leadership of the country: Mr Medvedev, the President, Prime Minister Putin, then knowledge gradually it became corrected.
… difficult time … hard day, and it is a pity to the families of the deceased, and it is a pity to Ossetic people and feel sorry for the Georgian people, because it is this shame, of course, it is not necessary, it could have been avoided. And we should have been avoided. We would like to see sooner or later the Georgian people to realize the full horror of what happened and not that repented though … although why not? … repented in front of the Ossetian people.
In those days, wrote an excellent, excellent article in my blog, my friend the lawyer Shota Gorgadze. And how much stuff he then listened to his address, how many threats. But honest people will always remain decent human beings, how could they not been threatened and how they may have tried to influence.
I do not want that on my life and the lives of my children have been such fratricidal war. I do not want. I want when the Olympics began, the concern only sport battles … ” ( Vladimir Soloviev )

Vladimir Putin – Holiday and PR

No comment…not today…

ap_putin_1_090804_ssh

In this photo taken on Monday, Aug. 3, 2009, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is seen feeding a horse in the mountains of the Siberian Tyva region (also referred to as Tuva), Russia, during his short vacation.
(Alexei Drizhinin/RIA Novosti/AP Photo )

Putin Bolsters Tough Guy Image said journalists from abc news.

UPDATE: 7 august 2009

WASHINGTON, August 5 (RIA Novosti) – “The Pentagon is concerned by the unexpected presence of two Russian submarines in international waters off the U.S. coast, although a Russian official said the patrol was not unusual. The NewYork Times reported late on Tuesday that the two submarines had been in the area for several days. The newspaper quoted Defense Department officials as saying one of the Akula-class vessels remained 320 kilometers (200 miles) off the coast, while the location of the second was not clear. One of the submarines is an Akula II nuclear-powered attack submarine, considered the quietest and deadliest of all Russian nuclear-powered attack submarines.akula_class_submarine

A Pentagon spokesman acknowledged the report. “We have no comment about this. But we are aware of what is happening,” he told RIA Novosti by telephone. Defense Department officials expressed concern to the New York Times about the presence of the vessels due to the unexpected nature of their appearance, but were not worried about the U.S. military’s ability to track them”.

Beyond that amused me this mimed “innocence” of the Department of State U.S. ( identical were “surprised” when American pilots met with the Soviet bombers that patrolled the Pacific…), if premier Putin was not there for to shooting for a sexy/ heroic pictorial, even this story has no charm … Because talk of PR, Edward Bernays, the founder of modern public relations, said that the syntagma “No comment” should not find in a dowry of a spokesman. I do not know how it happens, but I have heard many times that the phrase uttered by spokesmen of the greatest rulers of the planet.